Month: September 2019

View the MMABETMACHINE Stakes below for UFC234:

Ricky Simon FREE Breakdown:
Simon has a wrestling and cardio advantage in this matchup that will serve him well. Yahya has a very inadequate gas-tank and has to discover an early submission for victory here. He’s a complete wizard in the grappling department so Simon will be best to keep this one standing initially and wear Yahya out on the toes. Assuming he can survive the first round blitz, Simon’s grinding style and output signal will takeover. A decision or finish by accumulation in the later rounds is probably. At pick’em odds we like Simon to win well over 50 percent of the time in this matchup.
Bet = Simon at 1.94 (-106) odds. Risk 3 Units to win 2.8 Units.Montana De La Rosa Breakdown:
Montana is a tenacious wrestler and grappler. Kassem is quite inexperienced and has versed extremely low level opponents. On the feet this may be marginally even, Montana is serviceable and Kassem has a nice technique but lacks power. The takedown and grappling defense of Kassem looks non-existant from her present footage so the road to victory for Montana is very obvious. Search for Montana to find this one down to the mat frequently where she probably finds a submission.
Gamble = De La Rosa in 1.40 (-250) chances. Risk 4 Units to acquire 1.6 Units.
Sam Alvey Breakdown:
Alvey has the exact same gameplan every struggle but it is going to serve him well here. Crute is quite green and with a short notice opponent switch is not likely to have adapted his own gameplan significantly to suit. Alvey’s takedown defense must keep this one position and it will come down to power versus output. Crute is competitive on the feet but does not have any protection when entering the pocket to strike. The counter for Alvey should be wide open all struggle. Crute will fight with his wrestling and also get desperate on the toes as frustration sets in. Alvey is a good pick at underdog odds to land an KO blow someplace within three rounds.
Bet = Alvey in 2.27 (+127) chances. Risk 3 Units to acquire 3.8 Units.
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The UFC was busy announcing new struggles. Below are some of the newest upcoming bouts set for spring UFC cards, and my first thoughts on them.
Michel Prazeres vs. Ismail Naurdiev, UFC Fight Night 145
Due to an injury to Ramazan Emeev, Ismail Naurdiev has obtained a short-notice fight against Michel Prazeres at UFC Fight Night 145, occurring February 23 at The O2 Arena in Prague, Czech Republic. MMABrasil broke the news. Prazeres (26-2) is 10-2 at the UFC overall and will be riding an eight-fight win streak at the moment. He had trouble making the lightweight limit of 155lbs and since moving up to welterweight has arguably looked even better with back-to-back wins over Zak Cummings and Bartosz Fabinski. Naurdiev (17-2) is making his UFC debut on the potency of back-to-back knockout wins. He has experience fighting in ACB, and the vast majority of his wins have come by stoppage. However he has also fought a very low level of rivalry and Prazeres is a major step up. I anticipate Prazeres to be a solid favorite here, and he deserves it after the current run he has went on inside the Octagon.
Enrique Barzola vs. Kevin Aguilar, UFC on ESPN 2 Featherweights Enrique Barzola and Kevin Aguilar are set to meet UFC on ESPN 2, occurring March 30 in Wells Fargo Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The news broke. Barzola (15-3-1) is 5-1 in the UFC and is currently riding a four-fight win streak with all of his wins coming from choice. Barzola’s record is impressive, but his lack of finishing instincts could damage him as he progresses up the featherweight ranks. Aguilar (16-1) is coming from a powerful UFC debut when he won a unanimous decision over Rick Glenn, and overall he’s riding an eight-fight win streak. His only career loss came from Leonard Garcia back in 2013, but he’s been perfect in his MMA career. This is a pretty good matchup between two guys on win stripes but according to his capacity to actually complete a fight I would have to prefer Aguilar to get his hand raised.
Tom Breese vs. Ian Heinisch, UFC Fight Night 147
Due to an injury to Cezar Ferreira, Ian Heinisch is stepping up as an injury replacement to take on Tom Breese at UFC Fight Night 147, taking place March 16 at The O2 Arena in London, England. Breese (11-1) is 4-1 in the UFC and is coming off of a TKO win over Dan Kelly in his middleweight debut. Heinisch (12-1) is now riding a four-fight win streak and is coming off of a successful UFC introduction when he conquered the above Ferreira by decision. His only career defeat came from Markus Perez, who only submitted Anthony Hernandez in UFC Fight Night 144. This looks like a really solid matchup between two middleweights with prospective name aspirations. Both Breese and Heinisch are extremely well-rounded fighters and this will be a close fight. I would have to favor Breese only based on the fact the fight is in England, but I anticipate Heinisch to be very competitive in this matchup and that he is well worth considering as a dog.
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The UFC matchmakers are busy sending out contracts. In today’s MMA odds and ends I’ll give my thoughts on two fresh bouts for UFC 237, such as a potential No. 1 competition fight from the featherweight division, plus my first reactions to 2 new bouts fights for UFC Russia.
Jose Aldo vs. Alexander Volkanovski, UFC 237
Featherweight contenders Jose Aldo and Alexander Volkanovski are set to battle at UFC 237 at a possible title eliminator. The card takes place May 11 in Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and information of this bout was first revealed by MMA journalist Farah Hannoun. Aldo (28-4) is 10-3 in the UFC and is coming from back-to-back knockout wins over Renato Moicano and Jeremy Stephens. After a rough stretch that saw him get pumped three days in four fights, Aldo looks better than ever and can be creating a late-career run to the belt that he held for years. Volkanovski (19-1) is 6-0 in the UFC and in his last bout brutally knocked out Chad Mendes. Many consider him a prospective featherweight champion, and this battle should tell us a lot about that. This is a huge fight, rather than an easy one to predict. Aldo will likely be favored because of his name value and Octagon expertise, but Volkanovski has appeared incredible from the UFC and should be a live dog in this bout.
Thiago Alves vs. Laureano Staropoli, UFC 237
Experienced welterweight Thiago Alves yields at UFC 237 if he takes on potential Laureano Staropoli. MMAFighting.com broke the news. Alves (23-13) is 15-10 overall from the UFC and most recently won a controversial split decision over Max Griffin. Staropoli (8-1) is riding a six-fight win streak and in his UFC debut won a”Battle of the Night” bonus because of his conclusion win over Hector Aldana. At this point you have to fade Alves and I’d prefer the 26-year-old Staropoli to win this bout. But considering he’s an unknown, it is possible he’ll be an underdog in this bout, so keep your eye out for him.
Sultan Aliev vs. Keita Nakamura, UFC Fight Night 149
Welterweights Sultan Aliev and Keita Nakamura are set to battle UFC Fight Night 149, taking place April 20 at Yubileyny Sports Palace in St. Petersburg, Russia. Nakamura replaced the injured Emil Weber Meek on relatively short notice with this bout. Aliev (14-3) is just 1-2 in the UFC and most recently was completed by Warlley Alves. Nakamura (34-9-2, 1 NC) is 4-6 overall from the UFC, including a 4-3 mark in his second stint within the Octagon. In his last battle, he edged a split decision over Salim Touahri. Both men will be on the chopping block with a reduction, and this battle looks like a close one. I’d favor Nakamura slightly just due to his durability, but it could go either way.
Abdul-Kerim Edilov vs. Devin Clark, UFC Fight Night 149
A light heavyweight bout between Abdul Kerim-Edilov and Devin Clark is also slated for UFC Fight Night 149. Edilov (17-4) has not fought since a September 2017 knockout win over Bojan Mihaljovic and has only one battle since 2015. But he’s just 27-years-old and is now riding an 11-fight win streak dating back to 2013. He’s a bit of a wild card at 205lbs, but overall looks like a promising prospect if he could stay healthy and stay out of trouble with USADA. Clark (9-3) is 3-3 in the UFC and is coming off of a barbarous TKO loss to Aleksandar Rakic. At this point it is just very hard to trust that the chin of Clark, and a hard-hitter like Edilov will be favored to beat him in this fight.
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The chances that the points scored by a team at a game to be odd or even are the same as the odds of head and tail to come out when we flip the coin, meaning 50%. Especially in sports as basketball the points happen multiple at one time and where the scores are large. It is just a game of numbers.
If we all know and we knoe that the real probability for each result is 50 percent we could use the laws of binomial distribution to estimate the odds of events to happen in trials.
What I mean is that when a group has 6 consecutive odd points that are complete, the odds that the 7th game the points scored to be odd are 0.062, 62 out of 1000. More if a group has 7 consecutive odd total points that the chances to become in the 8th are 0.035, 35 from 1000. The probability will not become 0 after 8 or 9 consecutive odds but they are becoming more closer to 0. Even at 35/1000, there nevertheless are chances but only 35 in 1000 trilas.
The main point is that Dallas Mavericks possess 6 consecutive odd total points so if we wager total points even for Dallas the chances to lose the wager are 6.2% and Phoenix Suns have 7 consecutive odd totals so if we they will score tonight a total even the odds to lose will be 3.5%.
I didn’t make any backtesting but it’s pure mathematics so I’ll take them good bets.

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